TABELLA-Usa, nuove stime economiche Federal Reserve dopo Fomc su tassi

venerdì 18 settembre 2015 09:18
 

Sept 18 (Reuters) - Following are U.S. economic forecasts issued by the Federal
Reserve on Thursday
    
(All figures Q4 over Q4, except jobless rate, which is Q4 average, and all
figures in percent)


MEDIAN VIEW OF APPROPRIATE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (in percent)



               SEPT        JUNE        MARCH         DEC       SEPT
End-2015     0.375        0.625        0.625       1.125      1.375
End-2016     1.375        1.625        1.875       2.500      2.875
End-2017     2.625        2.875        3.125       3.625      3.750
End-2018     3.375        N/A          N/A         N/A        N/A
Longer-run   3.500        3.750        3.750       3.750      3.750


MEDIAN

Real GDP       2015        2016         2017          2018    Longer Run
   Sept        2.1          2.3         2.2           2.0        2.0
   June        1.9          2.5         2.3           N/A        2.0

Unemployment

   Sept        5.0          4.8         4.8           4.8        4.9
   June        5.3          5.1         5.0           N/A        5.0

PCE Price Index

   Sept        0.4          1.7         1.9           2.0        2.0
   June        0.7          1.8         2.0           N/A        2.0

Core PCE index

   Sept        1.4          1.7         1.9           2.0        N/A
   June        1.3          1.8         2.0           N/A        N/A



CENTRAL TENDENCY FORECASTS

Real GDP      2015         2016         2017       2018        Longer Run
   Sept    2.0 to 2.3   2.2 to 2.6   2.0 to 2.4   1.8 to 2.2   1.8 to 2.2
   June    1.8 to 2.0   2.4 to 2.7   2.1 to 2.5   N/A          2.0 to 2.3

Unemployment

   Sept    5.0 to 5.1   4.7 to 4.9   4.7 to 4.9   4.7 to 5.0   4.9 to 5.2
   June    5.2 to 5.3   4.9 to 5.1   4.9 to 5.1   N/A          5.0 to 5.2

PCE Price Index

   Sept    0.3 to 0.5   1.5 to 1.8   1.8 to 2.0   2.0             2.0
   June    0.6 to 0.8   1.6 to 1.9   1.9 to 2.0   N/A             2.0

Core PCE index

   Sept    1.3 to 1.4   1.5 to 1.8   1.8 to 2.0   1.9-2.0        N/A
   June    1.3 to 1.4   1.6 to 1.9   1.9 to 2.0   N/A            N/A



Notes: 
N/A-not available 
Prior forecasts were released on June 17, 2015. The U.S. central bank has said
the longer-run projections for growth and unemployment may be interpreted as
estimates of rates that appear sustainable in the long run. The long-run
inflation projection may be interpreted as the rate Fed officials see as
consistent with their dual objectives of maximum sustainable employment and
price stability.